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Prediction for CME (2024-06-28T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-28T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31741/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and just to the SE in STEREO COR2A. The source for this CME is not entirely certain, but appears to originate from the cluster of ARs 3723, 3727, 3728, centered roughly around S20E25 (as such, this is used as the CME source coordinates). Some small C-class flaring is observed here as early as 2024-06-27T19:45Z, more noticeable closer to 2024-06-27T21:24Z possibly due to post-eruptive loops observed across SDO AIA 94/131/171/193. However, more confidence in this area is given via a good triangulation of the CME front between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A in swpc_cat when measuring. No clear arrival signature in solar wind found for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-01T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Jun 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
... A faint partial-halo CME, first
seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0024 UTC and thought to have originated
from the active region cluster in the SE, is expected to be
Earth-directed with a likely arrival on 03-04 Jun.
â¦

Lead Time: 33.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-06-29T20:09Z

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